Hummus a Few Bars.

 A Headless Body Production

Location:  Steve's Pocono Paradise

Event:       Practice for Barrage

Scenario:  Byzantines vs Arab Conquest

Players:    Steve Turn running the Arab Conquest.

                  Phil Gardocki running the Nikephorian Byzantines

Game System: L'Art de la Guerre, about 200 points per side.

The Forces:

Nikephorian Byzantine

Nikephoros, Yourippidis and Youmendidis, (this battle is about to go pants, really quick) all Brilliant

      2 Cataphracts, elite

      2 Heavy cavalry impact, elite

      2 Light Cavalry, Bow, elite     

      3 Light Cavalry, Bow      

      2 Varangian Guards, Heavy swordsmen armour 2HW, elite

      6 Skutatoi, ½ Heavy spearmen ½ Bowmen

      3 Light Infantry, Bow

Breakpoint of 21

Arab Conquest

The Arab script is not legible to christian scholars, so we are going to have to guess here.

Ishmael Mafadi, who outshines the stars in her brilliance, Hummus, the competent and Baba Ganoush, also competent

      6 Heavy Spearmen, Elite

     12 Medium Cavalry, Impact, Elite

      2 Light Infantry, Bow 

Breakpoint of 20

The Board 

The Arabs win the initiative and elect to attack in the plains.  The Byzantines select a field, a plantation and a gully.  The Arabs select, but are denied, a coastal, then a field and a road.

The plains of Megiddo, on a Sunday afternoon, 610 or 1060 AD. The historians are not sure on the precise year. 

Deployment

On the Arab right, Hummus, with 6 Elite Impact Cavalry.

Ishmael's command staff is behind 6 Heavy Spearmen, Elite.

To her left are more cavalry.

Youmendidis has a solid line of Skutatoi

Nikephoros with a mix of forces, Skutatoi, Varangians and Cataphracts

Yes, from an organizational point of view, this structure makes no sense, as it take 3 command points just to move forward.

Yourippidis with 2 Katahractoi, and a horde of lights.  His elite Turkomons are marked with the little black dice  on the stands.

Turn 1:

Arab Cavalry race across, coming to a stop 1 yard before the line of spent arrows.

Their supporting spearmen are racing to keep up

The Arab far left, beset with command difficulties, and terrain issues lag behind.

Youmendidis holds his forces.  "Let them come"

Nikephoros, with a surplus of command points, angles his forces towards the spearmen.

Yourippidis's forces will keep the other Arab horse busy.

Turn 2:

Hummus also holds back, just out of bow range.

Arab foot also cant's their line to match.

The Arab left compresses to pass the gully

The shape of the battle has been determined. 

Youmendidis loses his patience and advances.  He is outnumbered and in melee, he is mediocre vs elite, but the base numbers are good with impact and spear vs zero.

Nikephoros advances to bow range, but not charge reach.

Yourippidis's lights advance to charge reach, but are out of shooting range.  Enough to taunt, but not enough to threaten.

He is also somewhat focused on the light on light action for possession of the gully.

Turn 3:

Hummus is faced with the decision of either charging of leaving.  But staying in bow range is not an option. 

Neither Steve nor I know that is going to happen here.  I think I have the edge.

Arab horse threaten to charge, pulling up after a brief trot.

Youmendidis's Skut's are doing well.

But the battle is still in doubt.  2 horse are slain, but most of the skuts are disordered as well.

The main lines contact.  3 units are disordered.  Armor saving the cataphracts from damage. 

Arab horse are actually behind the Byzantine infantry line and can make a flank charge.  Yourippidis's Kataphracts dare them to try.

Turn 4:

The Arabs take the dare.  With the collapse of their right flank, the center becomes a must win situation.

Besides, they greatly outnumber Yourippidis's heavy horse.

The Arabs have13 points towards their break point of 20

The Byzantines have10 points towards their break point of 21

The center scrum continues.

Yourippidis advances his forces, but does not commit to battle.

Way off in the corner, the Petchnegs have run off their Arab lights, and can now threaten the Arab camp.

Turn 5:

The last stand triumphant! They actually destroyed their attackers.

The Byzantine center is near total destruction.

Emboldened, the Arab left charges all round.

The Arabs have19 points towards their break point of 20
The Byzantines have13 points towards their break point of 21

The Byzantines need one point.  It's an out at any base!  Arrows fly with 2 pluses, but the Arab cavalry dances between the shafts.

The only win in the center for the Byzantines just causes additional disorder.

Turkomen archery proves ineffective.  Yourippidis's heavy horse figures it's someone else's job to win.

Turn 6:

The game has gone from a decisive Byzantine win, to up in the air.

Arab horse conforms to the next corner to corner opponent.

The Blue Kataphract is flanked and destroyed.

But Yourippidis has words with his commanders, and force a win.

The final score
The Arabs have 20 points towards their break point of 20
The Byzantines have 19 points towards their break point of 21
=========================================================

If you have read to the bottom of this battle report, I have a reward for you.

In the heart of Limerick, Pa, I have wrought in secret, a cruel device.   I thought about keeping this to myself, but I also think I am not the only one that has worked this out.  So I am going to level the playing field, at least for my loyal audience.

Have you ever wondered just how much that cost for elite is worth? Armor?, Impact? Support?

I have built a data driven L' Art de la Guerre combat simulator that runs through thousands of battles and I’ll give you a summation of the results.

On demand I’ll provide specifics, but I am not going to present numbers till your eyes bleed.  It's not a pretty sight, believe me.

The short form, assuming all other factors are even:

     Elite vs non elite will eventually destroy his opponent 70% of the time.

     Having armor vs non armor is also 70/30.

     Having support means you will win 84% of the time.

     Having support vs elite 71/29

     Impact (sans furious charge) vs non impact is 60/40

So, in the end, support (tactics!) trumps elite (quality!)

So the big reveal here is you have to play well.  Good match ups matter, but overlaps matter more.

The average number of bounds between impact and one sides destruction is between 3.5 and 4.5 rounds.  3.5 rounds for cavalry/knights and 4.5 rounds for heavy infantry.  Results vary only a couple of tenths for armor, impact, furious charge, but only a few tenths.

So if you are planning on busting through your opponents lines in a turn, you are more likely going to be disappointed.  You might destroy an enemy on the second bound, but it is just as likely to run on for 6.

One of the odd things about the averages is that while having armor, raises the average time, so does having a mediocre combatant.  This is due to mediocres taking significantly longer to win when averaged with an ordinary also taking longer.  The mediocres take longer because their winning dice average is lower, but also because the ordinary also take longer to win due to having in their list of wins, battles that they would have lost had their opponent been ordinary as well.  A few extra "whiffs" into the mix as it were.

So averages are not a very good statistic in this regard.   

Oh, Elite vs Mediocre?  91-9.